The ratio of cervical fluid and serum human chorionic gonadotropin as a predictor of abortion

BACKGROUND Progressions in science and technology have generated several methods for delaying preterm delivery and abortion; therefore, discovering an easy, non-invasive, practical, and non-expensive predictive factor can help us to perform preventive methods in healthy pregnant women, without any risk factors. OBJECTIVE To indicate an appropriate index for predicting abortion in early pregnancy. MATERIALS AND METHODS In a prospective study, 73 pregnant women who had a singleton pregnancy, had no complications or history of abortion or disease, and were referred to Mahdieh and Taleghani Hospitals between 2007-2009, were evaluated. Blood and cervical fluid samples were obtained thrice from all patients: at the first visit, after 1 week, and 1-2 weeks later. They were followed up until the 12(th) week of gestation. RESULTS Using the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, 1.62 was obtained as the cut-off point for the cervical fluid: serum human chorionic gonadotropin concentration ratio; 14 patients (19.2%) experienced abortion, and 12 women (70.6%) had a ratio ≥1.62. Of the pregnant women with a ratio of <1.62, 3.6% had an abortion. CONCLUSION Pregnant women who do not show any signs of abortion and have a high cervical fluid: serum HCG concentration ratio are at risk of abortion; therefore, the cut-off point might be an appropriate index for predicting abortion in early pregnancy.